For many across the globe Russia’s actions following the ousting of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is a shock. However, once you look at the world of international politics through the prism of Realism and Great Power Politics, the unfolding situation looks o so familiar.
One of the key premises of realism is that states operate in an anarchic world system with no form of Leviathan. For this reason, security becomes top priority and states can ultimately only rely on themselves to provide it, and consequently are endlessly seeking to maximise military, economic and geographical power in the zero sum game of great power politics. This security paranoia can cause states to sometimes pitilessly fight to protect their security interests, most especially when the threat to security is located so close to home.
In this instance, Ukraine provides a vital buffer zone between the Russian motherland and the expanding NATO umbrella to the west. President Putin has recognised the importance of Ukraine’s role in Russian security and will ultimately want to keep Ukraine as an allied neighbour and not lose another eastern block nation to NATO which would inevitably provide the opportunity for NATO to deploy is missile defences right on Russia’s doorstep. An incalculable security threat in realist terms if there ever was one.
Another principle of realist theory is that ultimately great powers only join and adhere to international organisations and laws when it is advantageous for them and will disregard these laws when it suits their interests, most predominantly security. This has been seen on countless occasions with states around the world and is part of the reason why U.S objections to Russia’s actions have been seen as laughable by some commentators.
This lackadaisical view of international law explains why Russia rapidly deployed troops to the Crimean Peninsula with no regard to Ukrainian sovereignty. This is because protection if its military interests including it’s naval base in Sevastopol, Russia’s only warm water port along its western frontiers holds much greater importance to Russian security than upholding international law. The overthrowing of pro-Russian president Yanukovych poses a huge challenge to the security of Sevastopol and thus Putin is not prepared to sit back and hope the dice fall in his favour and has taken the proactive option to secure Russia’s security directly.
Realism and Great Power Politics also go a long way to explain the US’s response to Russia’s actions. The US has little real personal interest in Ukraine with trade reaching only $3 billion with Kiev, and yet the US administration proclaim to care so deeply about the people of Ukraine and their state’s sovereignty. However, when you see the Ukrainian situation as an opportunity for The US to gain any form of advantage over Russia in the zero sum game of great power politics it becomes quite clear why the US is attempting to stamp its authority under the guise of international law.
It is far from easy to make any sort of predictions in this high pressure situation unfolding across the Crimean Peninsula, yet realist theory can give us some indication. The Kremlin sees the crisis in Ukraine has an immense threat to Russia’s immediate and long-term security, much more so than any contrasting threat to US security. If Crimean was annexed by Russia or became pro Russian again the US would in reality be in no worse a position than it was only a matter of weeks ago before the ousting of Yanukovych. Taking these perspectives into consideration, Russia is the most likely successor in this face off between two great powers as the much greater threat to its security will likely drive it to fight its corner much more profusely. Hints of this outcome can already be seen with Russia’s unwavering defence of it actions versus a fairly limited US reaction beyond its rhetoric.
onpolitik.wordpress.com 